We think there will be a few more legs of semis consolidation. So we compiled a list of 5 semis companies who we think will survive:
1. ADI & TI
2. QCOM
3. NVDA
4. Some chip company from China
5. The smoldering remains of Intel, probably owned by others.
Moore’s Law brings benefits beyond semis. The price and accuracy of sensors are both moving in the right direction allowing for fine-grained pervasive sensor networks, just as advances in AI mean we can make real use of all that data.
China’s EV market is an exercise in controlled chaos that is likely to reshape the global auto industry.
South China’s electronics complex is built on human capital and intangibles as much as it is on plain, old-fashioned capital and money. This makes it harder for anyone else to replicate.
We are all familiar with software and Internet companies building their own chips. Less appreciated is the extent to which semis companies are all gradually morphing into software providers as well.
RISC V is going to encounter a lot of software incompatibility problems, but that probably won’t matter, and definitely won’t stop it.
There were a lot of autonomous vehicles at CES – not just cars but lots of Big things.
For us, the big theme of CES was how empty much of the show was. Is the show just recovering from the pandemic or is it poised to become something different.
The market for base station and RAN silicon is shaping up to one of the most interesting to watch in the new year. And intel seems to have forgotten its long, sorry history in the space, making for some great viewing.
TSMC has had decades of government subsidies and currency suppression working in it favor, but they have used that to build an incredibly deep reservoir of human capital which no one else can readily replicate.