What do the Hyperscalers Want?
In the semis landscape, when we talk about the hyperscalers we tend to focus on chip performance and power. Instead we should look at what problem they are really trying to solve with silicon.
In the semis landscape, when we talk about the hyperscalers we tend to focus on chip performance and power. Instead we should look at what problem they are really trying to solve with silicon.
We sat through 3 presentations listing a litany of woes that come with porting Android to RISC V. We came out more convinced than before that this will be a reality, and probably much sooner than we would have guessed.
We looked at revenue and operating income per employee for the big semis companies, and since that was so much fun, we looked at another dozen companies. Broadcom and Apple are in a league of their own. It is good to have a software or licensing business.
Apple’s M3 launch stood out for its focus on how people actually use computers, the lack of AI acronyms and the fact that they launched 3 chips all at once. It is only getting harder to compete with them.
A comparison in revenue growth for the global telecom equipment makers and the cloud service providers. Sometimes unfair apples-to-oranges comparisons are the most telling.
Qualcomm just launched a RISC V chip running a version of Android (Wear OS). Is this just a small project in an out-of-the-way market? Or is the sign of some bigger ambition?
We are going to start hearing a lot more about Handheld Game devices (PC grade graphics in devices smaller than a PC). This will not supplant phones of PCs, but could be a good segment for a few companies.
Android is a hot mess. Google should make it truly open source. This would relieve them of a major anti-trust vulnerability and infuse a massive amount of energy to the project.
We think there will be a few more legs of semis consolidation. So we compiled a list of 5 semis companies who we think will survive:
1. ADI & TI
2. QCOM
3. NVDA
4. Some chip company from China
5. The smoldering remains of Intel, probably owned by others.
Google missed a big opportunity with Stadia, it just wasn’t the one they were pursuing. We will gladly take GCP off their hands.