Consider Yourselves Warned – China Autos
China’s EV market is an exercise in controlled chaos that is likely to reshape the global auto industry.
Category Archives: China
Shenzhen Wasn’t Built in a Day
South China’s electronics complex is built on human capital and intangibles as much as it is on plain, old-fashioned capital and money. This makes it harder for anyone else to replicate.
Carrot, stick and waiver
The US has a number of ways to encourage allies to support its semis restrictions on China. These range the “stick” of enforcement to the “carrot” of waivers and targeted expansion of the restrictions.
Decoupling is Hard to Do
The decoupling train has left the station – with US companies showing clear momentum in reducing or eliminating their reliance on China. China still has a lot to offer, and while the process will take years, there are a growing number of alternatives.
The Android-ification of Cars
The shift to EVs is disrupting the auto supply chain. To name just one example, Foxconn, the company that epitomizes the model which separates electronics design and manufacture is now aggressively promoting its ability to replicate that model for cars.
How, Will China Respond?
China does not have any easy ways to respond to the latest US semis sanctions, but it still has a robust semis industry producing on older manufacturing nodes.
Fighting the Last War
The latest US semis restrictions seem to be a dusted off version of 1970’s Cold War measures, but the situation is so different we have a hard time seeing them proving effective and highly likely to spur strong counter reactions in China.
Corporate Governance with Chinese Characteristics
China’s corruption investigation into leading semis professionals can be read as a signal to the industry that Beijing wants to refocus investment into others parts of semis, and this seems to have caused on overall slowdown in semis funding deals.
2nd and 3rd Order Consequences
The ban on export of specific US semis products to China marks a major shift in tactics from the US government. Which opens the question what is the long-term goal here, or do they even have one?
High Level China Semis Overview
China’s semis industry has made incredible progress over the past ten years, but still has a long way to go.