Automotive semis are transitioning from the near-anarchy of dozens of independent vendors selling hundreds of discrete parts to platforms powering cars’ major systems. Great news for the big analog companies, if they can make the leap to digital.
There are really three markets for AI semis – training, cloud inference and edge inference. All of them are already fairly crowded. Choose your battles carefully.
China has become a net exporter of vehicles for the first time in its history. They are selling a lot of EVs to the world, and that will reverberate throughout the global economy.
Moore’s Law has been the low interest rate boost to semis for a long time, but those rates are rising now, and that may reshape many assumptions we take for granted in the market.
We are going to Barcelona for MWC. This is what we plan to learn about:
* Open RAN
* Cellular modem penetration beyond phones
* Cellular connectivity in cars and auto makers’ changing relationships with chip vendors
* The state of the wireless standards
Moore’s Law brings benefits beyond semis. The price and accuracy of sensors are both moving in the right direction allowing for fine-grained pervasive sensor networks, just as advances in AI mean we can make real use of all that data.
China’s EV market is an exercise in controlled chaos that is likely to reshape the global auto industry.
The US has a number of ways to encourage allies to support its semis restrictions on China. These range the “stick” of enforcement to the “carrot” of waivers and targeted expansion of the restrictions.
There are a lot of reasons to doubt that cars cannot be built in the same ways as electronics – the industry has had a 100 years of trial and error. But if one company can get it right, it will force everyone else to follow suit.
Qualcomm rounded up all the bad news to report this quarter. The bar will now be very low. This will give them breathing room next year, focusing on the Street on macro, which is better than letting them get impatient about autos.