Nvidia Q4 Results: More Acceleration
Nvidia now accounts for 75% of the market for data center processors. They are the most important company in the market now. How well the stock can do now is a totally different question.
Nvidia now accounts for 75% of the market for data center processors. They are the most important company in the market now. How well the stock can do now is a totally different question.
What does the proverbial Box Company need AI for right now? For non-technical companies is now the right time to invest in AI systems or is better to wait until the technology and ecosystem matures?
Some would argue that AI is a fad, the next Bubble waiting to burst. We are more upbeat than that, but it is worth thinking through what the downside case for AI semis might look like.
Maybe AGI will emerge, or we will see some other major breakthrough in AI, but focussing too much on those risks overlooking the very real but also very mundane improvements that transformer networks are already delivering.
Some back of the envelope math. Backing out Nvidia’s numbers from TSMC’s results point to a good quarter from Nvidia, possibly a very good one.
We used to assume that the economics of AI Inference would depend on Edge Inference, but we saw a lot to test that assumption at CES, which calls into question the uplift semis companies not named Nvidia can expect from AI.
There was a lot of AI-wash at CES, but the big vendors did not mention it much. Partly because they are holding new products for their own events but also because there are still a lot of missing elements.
The market for AI Edge Inference may not monetize well for the semis vendors.
So long as AMD has better GPUs than Intel and better CPUs than Nvidia they should have a seat at the table in the market for data center processors.
The numbers on data center processor revenue share are stark. Nvidia has been growing strongly for years and now dominates the league tables. The only question is really what is the new status quo for their share?