The semis shortage appears to be almost over for the big customers, but there are still shortages for WFE companies sitting far out on the forecasting tail, and “small” chip customers like the auto makers. Periodic reminder: the semis industry is cyclical
So far in this series, we have assumed that Apple is going to actually build a car, but there are many things that could go wrong and ultimately these will weigh heavily on a company that prides itself on being able to say no.
The Cyber Conservation Corps – If the US is going to spend a few hundred billion dollars on infrastructure, they should spare some a Cyber Security jobs program.
More Fun with Wireless Standards – The 3GPP has released a new timeline for updates to the 5G standard. And while it is delayed by 7-8 months, there are many signs that we are returning, or at least headed towards, some form of normalcy.
What is happening to the supply chain? There are some significant bottlenecks in the electronics supply chain right now, with even some of the most overlooked components in shortage. Blame 2020, but also, call ALL your suppliers, just to double check.
The Haves and the Have Nots – No one can predict how the economy will fare, for now the tech industry is propped up by a healthy dose of investor cash. Eventually this spigot will be shut off, and it is important to be prepared for a long winter.
Financial models – This is the Way. Build simple, cash models. Models do not give answers, they show constraints and trade-offs, and are a tool for making informed decisions. We have a few suggestions on the right way to build them.
Not a Drop for You – To use a highly technical terms, capital markets are weird right now. We are seeing a growing divide between the haves and have-nots, with many start-ups rolling in investor interest and many more seeing their options decline.
Uncertainty – Are we going back to work? – After a week of speaking to a lot of large enterprises, we think a lot of big companies will not return to normal activity this year.
Is America losing the R&D race? – The short answer is no, but we may want to rethink how we prioritize our R&D investments.