The latest US semis restrictions seem to be a dusted off version of 1970’s Cold War measures, but the situation is so different we have a hard time seeing them proving effective and highly likely to spur strong counter reactions in China.
Everyone tends to forget that Samsung is a provider of leading edge semis manufacturing. It is important to remember them because there is a non-zero chance that they may not remain an alternative.
The markets are terrible. Moore’s Law is slowing. 6G is distant. But we are actually optimistic. Solutions exist for building compelling, complex systems. All that is missing is imagination and a bit of capital.
The semis shortage appears to be almost over for the big customers, but there are still shortages for WFE companies sitting far out on the forecasting tail, and “small” chip customers like the auto makers. Periodic reminder: the semis industry is cyclical
So far in this series, we have assumed that Apple is going to actually build a car, but there are many things that could go wrong and ultimately these will weigh heavily on a company that prides itself on being able to say no.
The Cyber Conservation Corps – If the US is going to spend a few hundred billion dollars on infrastructure, they should spare some a Cyber Security jobs program.
More Fun with Wireless Standards – The 3GPP has released a new timeline for updates to the 5G standard. And while it is delayed by 7-8 months, there are many signs that we are returning, or at least headed towards, some form of normalcy.
What is happening to the supply chain? There are some significant bottlenecks in the electronics supply chain right now, with even some of the most overlooked components in shortage. Blame 2020, but also, call ALL your suppliers, just to double check.
The Haves and the Have Nots – No one can predict how the economy will fare, for now the tech industry is propped up by a healthy dose of investor cash. Eventually this spigot will be shut off, and it is important to be prepared for a long winter.
Financial models – This is the Way. Build simple, cash models. Models do not give answers, they show constraints and trade-offs, and are a tool for making informed decisions. We have a few suggestions on the right way to build them.