Our sense is that the downturn in VC investing is not as traumatic as past cycles and may start to improve in a few months. That being said, the environment for LPs investing in VCs remains mired in amber as everyone tries to figure out the value of money
We think the market will probably improve later this year, and IPOs & venture funding will pick up pace, but the investing environment will be very different than the long summer we have enjoyed for too long. (Unless your company has AI in its name.)
The latest US semis restrictions seem to be a dusted off version of 1970’s Cold War measures, but the situation is so different we have a hard time seeing them proving effective and highly likely to spur strong counter reactions in China.
Everyone tends to forget that Samsung is a provider of leading edge semis manufacturing. It is important to remember them because there is a non-zero chance that they may not remain an alternative.
The markets are terrible. Moore’s Law is slowing. 6G is distant. But we are actually optimistic. Solutions exist for building compelling, complex systems. All that is missing is imagination and a bit of capital.
The semis shortage appears to be almost over for the big customers, but there are still shortages for WFE companies sitting far out on the forecasting tail, and “small” chip customers like the auto makers. Periodic reminder: the semis industry is cyclical
So far in this series, we have assumed that Apple is going to actually build a car, but there are many things that could go wrong and ultimately these will weigh heavily on a company that prides itself on being able to say no.
The Cyber Conservation Corps – If the US is going to spend a few hundred billion dollars on infrastructure, they should spare some a Cyber Security jobs program.
More Fun with Wireless Standards – The 3GPP has released a new timeline for updates to the 5G standard. And while it is delayed by 7-8 months, there are many signs that we are returning, or at least headed towards, some form of normalcy.
What is happening to the supply chain? There are some significant bottlenecks in the electronics supply chain right now, with even some of the most overlooked components in shortage. Blame 2020, but also, call ALL your suppliers, just to double check.